Is Apple Playing the Startup Game?
What would be the easiest way to keep a secret about an upcoming device? The device not to exist!
I recently read an article by Paul Graham, What Startups Are Really Like and he notes that one of the suggestions is to release early and get customer feedback. What if you didn't even have to release?
For a second lets think about what happened with the iPhone. There was a lot of speculation before January 2007, and then iPhone came to MacWorld with a magical device that no one had seen before and didn't even have them ready for release until June 2007. Even then they ran out. I don't have a clear history of the time before January 2007 because I didn't pay attention to Apple news back then but I imagine it's very similar to the rumors and speculation that has been flooding the Mac community since early December.
Lets say Apple decided in October / November that the technology was ready for an Apple phone. Rumors started to spread but initially trickled. As Apple is designing hardware they put out different little bits of rumors here and there, parts manufacturers let it slip that Apple is buying parts, patents starting making headlines etc., but Apple at this point has no actual phone. And then what does Apple do? It listens. It puts it's collective ears to the track and starts hearing what people are speculating about. Gathering ideas? In December they start developing a weak layer of software and hardware to support it, ready for January of 2007. Think about it. Apple didn't have to even give people hands-on demos or anything. I'm not saying they hadn't tested the feasibility of the device, I just think as far as features go, the community fed them to Apple. All they had to do was simply show a thin layer of design for key features on this magical mystery device. As long as they could commit to their promises, it didn't have to even be ready for release. Remember that even in June they hadn't manufactured enough to meet demand. The first OS for the original iPhone wasn't that feature-full, but it met speculations and was executed well! Six months is plenty of time for a company with Apple's level of resources to develop the software for the phone they promised in January. Interesting enough, the 3G was a completely new, more compact, design which even included a 3G radio, leading me to believe the initial hardware design was done in a bit of haste (where they didn't consider that the metal backing of the original iPhone affecting radio signal strength). To their credit, excellent execution.
As for an upcoming tablet-like device, they don't necessarily even have this new device in hand right now. There are tidbits that say "You will be very surprised how you interact with the new tablet," and it doesn't take much for people to run with that idea and come up with even newer ideas. They could be working on it as I type this and implementing key features that experts and the community are saying the device needs to beat the competition. Doesn't anyone else think it's weird that they could keep such secrets? Steve Jobs couldn't even keep his health problems a secret. There is just no secret to keep! It's also interesting their event is now two weeks after CES where the competition is presenting their sub-par tablet devices? I'd say two weeks is plenty of time to implement some last-ditch ideas, especially ones you don't have to immediately release to the public.
Apple is agile and I believe this is something they do best, and for that fact what GM does worst. And what has the entire Apple community been providing over the last month but providing excellent ideas. Why not just let the customers decide what they want and then execute their ideas?
If the device is ready for release on the 27th, this whole article is moot, but I could still be right about the iPhone 
EDIT: Just so this is clear. I have been informed that there are many iterations that the iPhone went through so it wasn't a turnaround of 6months. But it also doesn't mean they're not keeping an open ear, but this is somewhat obvious within constraints. SDK was a request from the users, but maybe it was always planned.